Senator Barack Obama A new national poll by
Harvard University's Institute of Politics (IOP), located at Harvard
Kennedy School, finds 18-24 year-olds who plan to vote for the Democratic
candidate in November strongly prefer U.S. Senator Barack Obama over U.S.
Senator Hillary Clinton (70% to 30%) to be the Democratic Party's
presidential nominee. The poll also finds a majority of likely young voters
favor Obama (53%) in a hypothetical head-to-head contest against U.S.
Senator John McCain (32%) but give Clinton a much smaller lead (44% to 39%)
when matched up against the Arizona Senator.
"The story of this presidential race could very well come down to which
campaign can inspire and mobilize the youth vote the best," said IOP
Director and former U.S. Representative (R-IA) James A. Leach. "Young
people are focused on the issues and challenges facing America. They care
deeply about the war in Iraq, but like the rest of the country are
increasingly concerned about the economy. They look forward to an honest
and spirited discussion on how to improve the jobs picture and how best to
deal with immigration issues."
The online survey of 2,452 18-24 year-old U.S. citizens conducted by
Harris Interactive(R) for the IOP between March 11 and April 1, 2008 finds
- With the Democratic presidential candidate field reduced to two, U.S.
Senator Barack Obama is favored by a margin of more than 2-1 over U.S.
Senator Hillary Clinton among 18-24 year-olds who plan to vote for the
Democratic candidate in November. In late-October IOP polling, when
asked who their first choice for President would be in 2008 likely 18-24
year-old Democratic primary voters gave Senator Obama a slight advantage
over Senator Clinton (38%-33%) and a strong lead over all other
Democratic candidate choices. Now, when young voters planning to vote
for the Democratic candidate in November are asked their preferences,
Obama is preferred by seven out of ten (70%) with three in ten (30%)
preferring Clinton. This margin is seen among both likely young
Democratic voters currently enrolled in four-year colleges (71%) and
among those who are not (70%).
- Obama and Clinton each preferred in hypothetical head-to-head match-ups
against McCain. When likely young 18-24 year-old voters of both parties
were asked for whom they would vote if the candidates for president were
Senators Obama and McCain, 53 percent said they would probably or
definitely vote for Obama with 32 percent saying the same about McCain
and 16 percent not sure. When asked about a Clinton-McCain match-up, 44
percent said they would probably or definitely vote for Clinton with 39
percent saying they would probably or definitely vote for McCain and 17
percent not sure. When asked about the same match-ups and adding in
Ralph Nader as a candidate choice, Obama still holds his 21 percentage
point lead over McCain (50%-29%-4% Nader) and Clinton maintains an
advantage over McCain as well (41%-34%-7% Nader).
- IOP TYPOLOGY SPOTLIGHT: Religious Centrists (15% of young people today)
are seen to be favoring a Democratic candidate. Since 2004, the IOP has
released the results of its innovative political typology analysis in
every spring survey. This spring's poll found that only 43 percent
of 18-24 year-olds fall within traditional ideological labels like
liberal and conservative, while 57 percent of young people fall to the
middle as either religious centrists or secular centrists, whose
attitudes are heavily influenced by their level of religiosity.
Splitting evenly in the 2004 elections for President Bush and U.S.
Senator Kerry (47%-47%), religious centrists will likely again be a
critical swing vote in the 2008 elections. Spring IOP polling shows
religious centrists strongly prefer Obama over McCain (65%-19%) and
Clinton over McCain (59%-29%). Very likely to participate in elections,
religious centrists' views are characterized by a deep concern over
the moral direction of the country and by support of free trade,
universal healthcare and environmental protection.
- Economy skyrockets to the top as most pressing national issue of
concern... As witnessed in many other national polls, the economy (30%)
is now the national issue America's 18-24 year-olds say concerns
them most, up twenty-five percentage points from fall 2007 IOP polling
(5%). Although Iraq and the War in general was the overwhelmingly top
national concern of America's youth last fall (37%), it is now the
second-highest issue (20%). Concern over healthcare today registered at
nine percent (9%), nearly the same number seen last fall (10%).
- ...and is the only issue both very important and highly relevant to
young people. When younger voters were asked how important a series of
issues are when deciding who to support for president and whether these
issues were personally relevant to them, the economy registered the
highest level of importance (86%) and personal relevance (79%). Cost of
tuition was far less important to young people (66%) than the economy,
but was the second-most personally relevant issue (68%). In addition,
18-24 year-olds said the War in Iraq (81%), foreign policy (71%),
healthcare (70%), and the environment (63%) are all important issues to
them when making up their mind politically, yet each of these issues is
less personally relevant than the economy and tuition costs.
- Political engagement levels among young people continue to increase, and
youth are looking forward to participating in the 2008 presidential
election. Consistent with findings from the past year of IOP polling,
America's 18-24 year-olds appear politically engaged as we approach
the general election. 64 percent of young people said they will
definitely be voting in the general election, up three percentage points
from levels seen last October (61%) and March (61%); this percentage
increases more among those enrolled in four-year colleges (72%) than
those who aren't (61%). Seven in ten (70%) 18-24 year-olds said
they follow news about national politics either very or somewhat closely
(up from 60% this fall) and four in ten (40%) consider themselves
politically engaged and active (up from 35% this fall). In addition, 73
percent of young people said they considered voting to be a civic duty
(27% said they did not).
- Twenty years from now, young people are confident U.S. will be leading
military power, but not top economic power. Looking ahead twenty years
from now, America's young people are split as to which country or
organization they expect will be the world's leading economic
power, with 34 percent saying China and 33 percent saying the U.S.
(16%-Eurpoean Union; 11%-Japan; 3%-India). When asked which country
they expected would be the leading military power, 64 percent said the
U.S. with China (17%) coming in second (6%-North Korea; 4%-Russia).
- America's youth are ready to volunteer on a political campaign that
asks them. A majority (56%) of young people who support a Democratic or
Republican candidate said they would be somewhat or very likely to
volunteer if asked by a campaign they supported, an increase of over
twenty percentage points since last fall (35%).
- America's youth value immigration...but stand conflicted over
benefits for illegal immigrants. When asked about immigration, nearly
two-thirds (64%) of our country's 18-24 year-olds agree somewhat or
strongly that "allowing immigration is a core American value dating
back to the founding of our nation," with only 13 percent
disagreeing somewhat or strongly with the statement. When asked if
illegal immigrants should have access to certain government benefits,
more than half (58%) of 18-24 year-olds said illegal immigrants
"should not" have access to driver's licenses (24% saying
"should") and exactly half (50%) said the same about access to
financial aid at state universities (29% saying "should").
However, 59 percent said illegal immigrants should have access to
emergency medical services with 56 percent saying the same about public
schools.
- Facebook rising as political organizing tool. Spring 2006 IOP polling
showed 76 percent of college students had Facebook accounts, and 14
percent had used it to promote a political candidate, event or idea.
Today, 86 percent of college students have access to Facebook and 37
percent have used it to promote a candidate or issue.
- Stephen Colbert or Jon Stewart? When asked who they preferred between
Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert, 30 percent of America's 18-24
year-olds said Stewart while 26 percent said Colbert. Forty-nine
percent of Republicans favor Colbert (21% Stewart, 31% neither), while
43 percent of Democrats favor Stewart (31% Colbert, 26% neither).
Harvard students designed the poll, in consultation with IOP Polling
Director John Della Volpe, whose firm SocialSphere Strategies commissioned
Harris Interactive to conduct the survey.
The Harvard Institute of Politics 14th Biannual Youth Survey on
Politics and Public Service was conducted online by Harris Interactive
among 1,247 U.S. citizens ages 18 to 24 years old enrolled in 4-year
colleges and universities, and 1,205 U.S. citizens ages 18-24 not enrolled
in 4-year colleges and universities. The study was fielded between March 11
and April 1, 2008. Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education,
household income and region for these populations were weighted where
necessary to bring them in line with their actual proportions in the
population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for
respondents' propensity to be online. Harris Interactive was responsible
for the data collection for this study; the Harvard Institute of Politics
completed the analysis and reporting of the data.
All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability
sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not
possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error,
error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording
and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore,
Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are
misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling
errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples
with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published
polls come close to this ideal. Respondents for this survey were selected
from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive
surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the U.S.
18-24 year old adult population. Because the sample is based on those who
agreed to be invited to participate in the Harris Interactive online
research panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be
calculated.
Harvard University's Institute of Politics (IOP), located at Harvard
Kennedy School, was established in 1966 as a memorial to President Kennedy.
The IOP's mission is to unite and engage students, particularly
undergraduates, with academics, politicians, activists, and policymakers on
a non-partisan basis and to stimulate and nurture their interest in public
service and leadership. The Institute strives to promote greater
understanding and cooperation between the academic world and the world of
politics and public affairs.
Harris Interactive is a global leader in custom market research. With a
long and rich history in multimodal research that is powered by our science
and technology, we assist clients in achieving business results. Harris
Interactive serves clients globally through our North American, European
and Asian offices and a network of independent market research firms.
SOURCE Harvard's Institute of Politics
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